Early bonding bill could hit an unexpected hurdle

February 9, 2010

Many policymakers are hoping for a quick bonding bill this session, wanting to take advantage of a favorable credit market to create jobs in Minnesota. However, at a legislative hearing on Monday morning, many were surprised to learn that an early bonding bill could have more implications than we were aware of. (Session Daily has written up a good summary of the discussion.)

It is standard practice that the state does not sell bonds until the legislative session is over. That’s because in order to issue bonds, Minnesota must first provide a statement that discloses the state’s fiscal situation. It’s a little difficult to give an accurate accounting of the state’s finances before policymakers have agreed on a budget and resolved the state’s deficit.

So, what happens if policymakers pass a bonding bill with plenty of “shovel-ready” projects early in the session? Those projects would probably need to be paid for out of the general fund until the state was ready to put the bonds up for sale after the legislative session ended (at which point the general fund would get paid back). Unfortunately, fronting bonding money will only contribute to the state’s significant spring cash flow problem. Keep in mind, however, that the state would only be advancing money for projects that were ready to go immediately, which is likely to be a small percentage of the total bonding bill.

There is no law preventing the state from issuing bonds during the legislative session. In fact, it was done in January 2009. However, Minnesota Management and Budget described that situation as “extraordinary.” So, while a quick bonding bill could be positive news for Minnesota’s economy, it could also exacerbate the state’s cash flow woes. (For more about bonding, take a look at a helpful information brief written by the House Research.)

-Christina Wessel

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Cash flow plan includes delays in school payments

February 5, 2010

It’s no surprise to hear that the state will be facing a cash flow problem this spring…but now we know how the administration will be handling the situation. Earlier this week, Jim Schowalter, the State Budget Director, presented the plan to the Legislative Advisory Committee.

The state’s cash flow problems for this fiscal year (FY 2010) are projected to peak in March, April and May. In order to ensure that the state has sufficient funds to cover expenses during these months, Minnesota Management and Budget (MMB) will exercise its authority to:

  • Delay $423 million in payments to school districts in March and April (will be paid out by end of May)
  • Delay $60 million in corporate and sales tax refunds (will be delayed in February, March and April and paid out in May and June)
  • Delay the March monthly payment of $52 million to the University of Minnesota (will be paid out in May)

Unfortunately, the state’s cash flow problems don’t end in FY 2010. The situation is actually worse in FY 2011 – when the cash flow deficit could reach $1.7 billion. In anticipation of the problem, MMB has issued a request for proposals (RFP) for short-term borrowing from an outside source. (This tool could also be used to manage the cash flow situation in the current fiscal year, but MMB expects that the payment delays outlined above should be sufficient.)

Some of the key elements of the short-term borrowing RFP:

  • The state is considering either a line of credit and/or a private placement to a large “sophisticated” investor (most likely an institution).
  • The amount is not to exceed $600 million.
  • The short-term loan would be repaid from resources in the general fund (and it would have to be repaid by June 30, 2011, the end of the fiscal year). However, the loan is secured by the “state’s full faith, credit and taxing power,” meaning the state would have to a levy a tax to repay the loan if there aren’t sufficient general fund resources available.
  • The RFP was issued on Thursday, February 4 and proposals are due on February 25.

A couple of caveats. MMB stressed that this RFP is intended to research the possibility of engaging in short-term borrowing – it does not commit the state to pursuing this option. Also, it’s important to note that before the state could engage in short-term borrowing, MMB is required under current law to delay payments to schools to the maximum allowable level – about $900 million.

-Christina Wessel

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Our first week on Facebook

February 5, 2010

OK, so we haven’t been on Facebook for a full week yet, but we’ve already had some interesting information to share. With the legislative session gaining steam – there is sure to be much more to come. We promised that we’d find a way to  get that information out to those of you who are not on Facebook (or twitter). So here are some highlights:

News you’ll want to know:

  • We are hearing that the Governor’s budget will be released after the State of the State (which is set for Thursday, February 11, 11:00 am). Keep mind that the Governor’s budget release is not behind schedule. There just had been previous statements indicating that it might come early, so that’s what is creating some uncertainty about a release date.
  • The February Forecast is set to be released Tuesday, March 2. The deficit is likely to remain close to $1.2 billion – so far state revenues have been tracking close to the November Forecast projections.
  • Sen. Pogemiller said in Rules Committee on Thursday that the 3rd committee deadline may be Monday, March 29. Easter/Passover recess would start that afternoon and run through following Monday or Tuesday. But it’s not official yet. FYI – the 3rd committee deadline refers to the date by which each of the individual finance committees needs to have its omnibus bill done.
  • The bonding bill will probably be on the Senate floor by next Tuesday.

We also shared a piece by Bob Greenstein (Executive Director of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities) on President Obama’s budget – it is a great way to get an overview of the critical fiscal issues facing us at the federal level.

-the Minnesota Budget Project team

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Congressional action needed to ensure that emergency unemployment benefits do not expire

February 4, 2010

Minnesota’s December unemployment rate was down from its 8.4 percent June peak, but many Minnesotans remain out of work and unable to find it. In January, the state said there were approximately 141,000 Minnesotans collecting state unemployment insurance. Another 88,000 Minnesotans had run out of state unemployment benefits and were receiving federal emergency unemployment benefits through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. But important improvements in assistance for struggling Minnesotans will end this month unless Congress takes action.

Unemployment insurance (UI) plays a critical role in a recession. In addition to providing replacement income for unemployed workers who lost their jobs through no fault of their own, it maintains consumer purchasing power in an economic downturn. The state’s UI program replaces approximately half of a qualifying worker’s gross income for up to 26 weeks. Minnesota recipients get a maximum of $585 a week – the equivalent of 40 percent above the 2009 federal poverty line for a family of four.

The federal Recovery Act provided several key supports to unemployed workers, including:

  • Additional weeks of UI benefits (in Minnesota, the maximum is now 86 weeks between state and federal resources).
  • A $25-per-week supplemental payment to all UI checks. In 2009, that provision was estimated to provide $180 million to unemployed Minnesota residents, and by extension to the state’s economy.
  • A federal income tax exemption for the first $2,400 of UI payments in tax year 2009.
  • Assistance for unemployed workers to continue their health insurance coverage through COBRA.

After February 28, eligibility ends for the federal emergency UI extension, the $25 a week supplementary payment and the COBRA support. Those getting benefits as of February would get a “soft landing” continuation. Those applying March 1 or later would not qualify.

Since unemployment remains high, Congress is considering extending the emergency UI assistance and federal COBRA extensions. These would likely be part of a jobs bill moving through Congress in February. (The National Employment Law Project is a good resource with information about efforts to extend eligibility through 2010.)

There is a strong argument for such extensions. Despite some recent positive economic signs, Minnesota’s December unemployment rate was 7.4 percent, still a high figure. The job situation remains severe and the outlook, “is still grim,” according to Minnesota’s November 2009 economic forecast:

Economists often stress that job creation can lag an economic turnaround by as much as 6 to 9 months … Tight credit conditions, sluggish demand, and no clear evidence that the recovery is sustainable will force employers to squeeze more productivity from remaining workers and hold back hiring for much of 2010.

Without a federal UI extension, thousands of Minnesotans are likely to run out of benefits before they find work. Their spending will drop, a further drag on the economy, and they will increase demands on other parts of the broader social service network. Last fall, approximately 500 Minnesotans a week were exhausting their federal and state UI benefits before the federal government added more weeks of eligibility.

After February 28, the impact on individual unemployed workers would depend on where they are in the system. They would qualify for some extended benefits, but not the current level.

Those who qualified for the COBRA health insurance support by the end of February would be allowed to continue their eligibility in the following months. As it works now, unemployed workers pay for 35 percent of the COBRA premium for themselves and their family. Families remain eligible for up to 15 months. (Minnesota also has a state COBRA Premium Subsidy that covers 35 percent of the COBRA premium. It has tighter income and asset limits than the federal program.)

The economy seems to be slowly turning the corner, but not quickly enough to help thousands of unemployed Minnesotans. Congress needs to continue extended unemployment benefits and COBRA support until the economy is on stronger footing. It not only helps people on the financial edge, but their increased spending will help support the recovery.

-Scott Russell

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Be a friend of the Minnesota Budget Project!

February 3, 2010

The Minnesota Budget Project is now on Facebook (and, actually, Twitter too)! The results of our poll last week indicated that many of you would be happy to see us expand into this new format. So we are going to give it a go.

Why are we doing this? Well, our mission is to provide information on tax and budget issues. In fact, it’s not only our mission, it’s our passion. We will use our Facebook page to provide more real-time reporting of quick facts from hearings and other meetings, to let you know about upcoming events that we think you would find beneficial, and to share interesting reports or blogs that we come across – all through a method that is quicker and more accessible to those on the go.

We want to address a few issues that arose through our survey:

  • People were concerned that Facebook might replace our blog and e-mails. No need to worry, nothing we currently do is going to change…Facebook is just one more way we can share information.
  • Some are unable to access Facebook at work (or don’t have a Facebook account). As a solution, we are going to post a regular Facebook journal on the blog. The information won’t be as timely as it is on Facebook, but it will allow those who can’t follow us on Facebook, or those who missed something during a busy week, to catch up on any of the really essential information we shared. We won’t include everything – just the information we think has lasting value and would be useful to our blog audience.
  • Some prefer to see us on Twitter. We also went ahead and set up a Twitter account (MNBudgetProject). Whatever we post on Facebook is set up to tweet to Twitter – so it’s yet another way of getting the information.

One thing to keep in mind:  we will continue to maintain the same high standards when it comes to the quality of the information we share through Facebook. We hope that this will be a more interactive environment, but we will still enforce our comment policy – we embrace a civil debate, but will delete any comments that are derogatory, partisan or otherwise inappropriate to our status as a 501(c)3 nonprofit organization.

-Christina Wessel

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Let’s tell policymakers we expect solutions this session

January 31, 2010

The 2010 Legislative Session begins this Thursday – February 4th – and it kicks off with two great ways to send a message to policymakers that the public is looking for real solutions this session.

Rally at the Capitol to Save GAMC (Thursday, February 4th, 11:30 am to 1:00 pm, State Capitol Rotunda)

Many people have been working very hard over the last few months to develop a plan for saving General Assistance Medical Care (GAMC) – a unique health insurance program for very poor and vulnerable Minnesotans that is scheduled to end on March 31. Please join us at the Capitol this Thursday as hundreds gather to rally in support of this bill. Legislators are expected to act early in the legislative session to pass a revised version of GAMC, one that puts the needs of our communities and critical institutions first, while still making responsible budget decisions. Don’t miss this important (and fun) chance for collective action, not just for those who are directly impacted by the loss of GAMC, but everyone interested in demonstrating that the public expects policymakers to stand up and solve the tough problems facing our state…and to do it quickly!

2010 Session Line Up (Friday, February 5th, 10:00 am to noon, Best Western Kelly Inn)

Once again, the Minnesota Council of Nonprofits is bringing together legislative leaders and the nonprofit community to have a conversation about the legislative session. So far, Majority Leader Tony Sertich, House Assistant Minority Leader Carol McFarlane, Senate Majority Leader Larry Pogemiller, Senate Assistant Majority Leader Tarryl Clark and Senate Minority Leader David Senjem have all been confirmed. Speaker of the House Margaret Anderson Kelliher is also likely to be there. This is special opportunity for people to show up and tell legislative leaders that one-time stopgaps and deep cuts to critical services are not a responsible way to solve the state’s budget problems. (This event is free, but please register so we’ll know how many people to expect!)

We hope you’ll be able to make it to both events!

-Christina Wessel

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President’s budget should target spending to speed recovery, reduce debt

January 31, 2010

The budget that President Obama will send to Congress on February 1 must address two seemingly conflicting goals: he must propose additional short-term spending in order to help the nation’s economy recover so that we can reduce the long-term national debt. Spend more now to reduce debt later? Yes, and here’s why.

With the nation’s unemployment rate above 10 percent, with a record number of home foreclosures and business bankruptcies, and with more Americans falling on hard times, it is clear that the path to economic recovery will be long and difficult. The federal government must continue to take temporary and targeted steps to boost the economic recovery, such as extending unemployment benefits, food stamps, and improvements in the Child Tax Credit and the Earned Income Tax Credit. These actions have the biggest bang for the buck because they put money into the hands of struggling individuals and families who will spend those dollars in their local communities.

Congress should also extend the Recovery Act’s provisions that increase the federal share of funding for Medicaid and state fiscal stabilization funds, which primarily support education. The $2.6 billion in federal Medicaid and stabilization funds that Minnesota received in 2009 was significant in a difficult year, and prevented many Minnesotans from losing health care and avoided deeper cuts in education. But Congress must act promptly, because current stimulus funds will run out by the end of 2010 while the states will still face deep budget shortfalls. Extending the federal contribution for Medicaid will help Minnesota and other states avoid making even deeper budget cuts that will hurt vulnerable Minnesotans, cost jobs and put a damper on the economic recovery.

Strengthening the economy through temporary and targeted spending will put us in a stronger position to reduce annual deficits and our long-term debt. Let’s be clear: stimulus spending is not the primary contributor to our budget deficit. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities issued a paper in December that found the biggest contributing factors to the increase in large federal deficits were the tax cuts enacted under President George W. Bush, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the economic downtown that has led to an unprecedented drop in tax revenues.

Combining short-term spending to revitalize our economy with tax policies that increase revenue will strengthen our fiscal position and help reduce deficits. The President’s budget calls for allowing the temporary 2001 and 2003 tax cuts aimed at the top income categories to expire.  Congress should also heed the President’s call to restore the federal estate tax and to make permanent the 2009 parameters of the law, which would still provide a dramatic tax cut compared to 2001 levels and only 0.2 percent of estates would have any estate tax liability, according to the Tax Policy Center.

By temporarily targeting spending now to pave the way for economic recovery, and enacting fair and sensible tax policies, we will be in a better position to reduce our national debt in the long term.

-Steve Francisco

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An update on General Assistance Medical Care

January 28, 2010

There is a little good news for Minnesotans who count on General Assistance Medical Care (GAMC) for their health coverage. Instead of ending on February 28 as initially announced, the GAMC program will be extended for an additional month. DHS determined that expenses in the program are below initial projections, so there is enough money to keep the program going through the end of March. This extra month allows policymakers to pass a modified version of GAMC in time to minimize the disruption to people who depend on the program for their critical health care needs.

If you are looking for some key background information on the GAMC situation, we encourage you to look at a new report the Minnesota Budget Project is releasing today: General Assistance Medical Care: Unique program serves a unique population. This concise analysis examines what makes this program so important and discusses the options on the table for replacing it.

-Christina Wessel

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Would you follow the Minnesota Budget Project on Facebook?

January 26, 2010

Always on the lookout for better ways to serve our audience, we’re considering starting a Facebook page for the Minnesota Budget Project in time for the legislative session. Our goal is to have a place where we can share our work, share the good work of others and continue our quest to get vital tax and budget information into the hands of those who can use it.

How would we use our Facebook page?

  • To report real-time important facts we are picking up at the Capitol or in other places
  • To let people know when an interesting event or great training opportunity is coming up
  • To share useful research being released by us or others

Being a fan of ours on Facebook would enable you to get information even more quickly, access it more easily through your mobile device, share it with others and engage in a conversation with us. In all, this would build on the mission of our blog – to let you know, what we know, when we know it.

However, before committing to this new strategy, we thought we’d do a little market research (and try out our blog’s survey feature!). So, please take our poll and let us know whether there is interest in seeing us on Facebook. Thank you!

(Just to clarify - since a few people have raised concerns since we posted this survey – Facebook would be in addition to everything we already do, it would not replace anything. Our blog and e-mails would continue as always.)

-Christina Wessel

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State Supreme Court ruling could overturn Governor’s unallotments

January 25, 2010

Last week, the state Supreme Court agreed to take up the case challenging the Governor’s unallotments. Now we can add the outcome of this case to the list of issues complicating the upcoming legislative session (already on the list: budget deficit and cash flow problems). Here are the facts of the matter:

The unallotment: The 2009 session ended with a stalemate over fixing the budget deficit. Governor Pawlenty didn’t call a special session, instead using unallotments to the tune of $2.7 billion to finish balancing the budget.

The court case: Back in October, six disabled and low-income Minnesotans filed a lawsuit challenging two of the unallotments. First, they challenged the elimination of the Minnesota Supplemental Aid-Special Diet (MSA-SD) program, which provides cash supplements to disabled Minnesotans whose health conditions require them to follow strictly prescribed diets. There are no other resources available to help them get the food they need. They also challenged the unallotment of the Renters’ Credit, which provides a property tax refund to low- and moderate-income renters in Minnesota. 

The case essentially involves two issues:

  • The first issue applies to both the MSA-SD program and the Renters’ Credit. The question involved is whether the unallotment statute could be used at all to balance the budget because the amount of the budget deficit was known (not “less than anticipated,” as the statute reads).
  • The second issue is narrower and only applies to the Renters’ Credit. If the unallotment statute can be used, it only allows the Governor to reduce appropriations. It does not allow the Governor to rewrite the statute. The Renters’ Credit statute says that 19 percent of rent is the amount of property tax paid for the purposes of calculating the Renters’ Credit. When the Governor unallotted the Renters’ Credit, instead of reducing the amount of funds, he changed the amount of property tax paid to 15 percent – effectively changing the statute.

The court’s decision: In late December, Ramsey County District Chief Judge Kathleen Gearin ruled that the unallotment statute could not be used because the budget deficit was neither unknown or unanticipated. She also ruled that the Governor’s use of the statute violated the separation of powers doctrine. As a result, she issued a temporary restraining order requiring the state to reinstate payments under the special diet program. The order is now on appeal.

Judge Gearin’s order did not address the Renters’ Credit unallotment. The Department of Revenue website has already issued instructions related to the Renters’ Credit that implements the Governor’s unallotment orders.

The next step: The Minnesota Supreme Court has agreed to hear the case. The Governor must submit his brief to the Supreme Court by February 9, the plaintiffs’ must respond by February 23 and the Governor may respond to the plaintiff’s brief by March 2. Oral arguments are scheduled for March 15.

The Supreme Court has the authority to overturn all of the Governor’s unallotments – not just the two challenged in the original case. So, until we know how the Supreme Court rules, we really don’t know what the implications will be for our state’s budget deficit. The Supreme Court will not hear oral arguments until mid-March, and it is very possible that they may not deliver their verdict until after the session ends on May 17.

-Christina Wessel and Scott Russell

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